000 AXNT20 KNHC 040605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 75.8W AT 04/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 265 NM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 145 NM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING NNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 73W-76W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS TOMAS TRACKS TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA...A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N24W 07N37W 10N48W 11N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 07W-18W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 05N-12N ALONG 22W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 20W-27W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 05N-10N ALONG 36W WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 10N60W TO 16N59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 54W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 29N92W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX 1007 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 29N87W. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS PARTIALLY OCCLUDED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE DOMINATE LOW ALONG 25N88W TO 21N89W AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST TO 17N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. FURTHERMORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 89W-95W. IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG NW TO N WINDS UP TO 30 KT WERE DEPICTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 03/1622 UTC AND THIS WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY MID-DAY THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE AND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N74W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS FEATURE ALOFT IS TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK N-NW TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS ARE LOCATED FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 68W-78W. TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF TOMAS...LOW-LEVEL GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SW OF TOMAS NEAR 13N78W TO COSTA RICA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. THIS MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 69W-82W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS PROVIDING FOR A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC WATERS W OF 77W. A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS FROM A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N77W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE. FARTHER EAST...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND WITHIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE W ATLC AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 52W-65W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FOUND BETWEEN 38W AND 52W. A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N41W EXTENDS A COLD FRONT TO 26N44W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 12N47W TO 20N45W IS ALSO CAPTURED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKNESS. THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS DETACHED FROM THE ITCZ REGION AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING A LARGE REGION TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM 09N-21N BETWEEN 38W-47W AND IS LIKELY AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N47W INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 03N36W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 42N13W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO NEAR 22N36W. 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