000 AXNT20 KNHC 040003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT 03/2100 UTC. TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 74.8W AT 03/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 260 NM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 210 NM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING NNW AT 5 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA S OF 18N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 71W-77W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 19N BETWEEN 68W-83W. TOMAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...THUS THE UPGRADE TO TROPICAL STORM AND COULD BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF TOMAS INTENSITY... THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER ANY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS BROKEN BY THE SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N24W 7N30W 8N40W 14N49W 14N56W. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 21W/22W FROM 3N-12N...ALONG 35W FROM 5N-11N...ALONG 46W/47W FROM 11N-20N...AND ALONG 59W FROM 9N-16N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 20W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 11W-18W AND WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 8N33W 12N41W TO 20N45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 28N95W COVERING THE GULF W OF 87W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N89W ALONG 24N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE N FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN APALACHEE BAY AND PENSACOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 25N W OF 84W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE W/CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND S OVER MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE E GULF ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE S GULF GIVING THE AREA E OF THE FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE GULF FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING IS TROPICAL STORM TOMAS AS IT MOVES TOWARD HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF WHICH TOMAS IS EMBEDDED BENEATH. TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF TOMAS AND SUCH IS EXPERIENCING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT E OF 74W THUS PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE W ATLC. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW IN THE N GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 55W-75W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A SHEAR AXIS IS S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 25N51W TO 24N64W AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SHEAR AXIS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTING NE FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-29N W OF 77W TO OVER THE FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 40W-60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 30N44W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 25N50W AND PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N42W TO 23N46W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 25N. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE S OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 23N47W TO 16N45W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...SEE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 26N E OF 35W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. 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