000 AXNT20 KNHC 031805 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010 CORRECTION FOR THE TIME OF THE CURRENT POSITION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS FROM 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS AT 03/1800 UTC IS NEAR 14.8N 75.0W...OR ABOUT 260 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI. TOMAS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 06 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 17N...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI...BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. OTHER STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N77W 15N81W 12N82W...AND THEN FROM THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF VENEZUELA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS TOMAS POSSIBLY REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH POSSIBLY AT 24 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 72 HOURS AND AT 96 HOURS. THE TRACK OF TOMAS IS NORTHEASTWARD FROM 48 HOURS TO 96 HOURS. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUINEA TO 10N18W...6N23W 5N33W... 5N36W TO 5N43W...AND THEN BECOMING INDISTINCT. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W. FOUR SURFACE TROUGHS ARE MIXED WITH THE ITCZ. IT IS NOT EASY TO DISTINGUISH WHICH PRECIPITATION IS WITH THE ITCZ AND WHICH IS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGHS. ONE TROUGH CURVES FROM 10N19W TO 6N22W TO 2N22W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. OTHER DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 26W AND 29W. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 5N TO 11N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. THE THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 7N TO 18N. ANY PRECIPITATION IS MIXED WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. THE FOURTH SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N57W 11N58W 8N59W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GUYANA...INTO WESTERN SURINAME...FROM THE SURINAME COAST TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 11N59W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THE AREA OF GALVESTON BAY/TRINITY BAY OF EAST TEXAS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS TEXAS/LOUISIANA/MEXICO...AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE SURFACE FRONTAL CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO A 1009 MB SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS FROM 25N NORTHWARD INTO THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 27N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS OBVIOUSLY IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AT THIS MOMENT. SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REPORTED 1.37 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W...PRACTICALLY THE WHOLE AREA FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA TO COASTAL HAITI AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MORE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION...FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N57W 11N58W 8N59W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GUYANA...INTO WESTERN SURINAME...FROM THE SURINAME COAST TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 11N59W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROUGH AND ANY AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION MAY STAY INTACT AND MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 80W IN CUBA BEYOND 31N79W. THIS RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE EAST TEXAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N59W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 30N49W...AND DISSIPATING FROM 30N49W TO 25N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. SOME OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE COLD FRONT ALSO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS...THAT IS ALONG 27N49W 23N60W 19N69W AT THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE COUNTRY. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT