000 AXNT20 KNHC 030557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 75.2W AT 03/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 360 NM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 305 NM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING WSW AT 05 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 69W-78W. GIVEN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...THEN BEYOND 72 HOURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND STEER TOMAS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 07N21W 05N29W 09N43W 08N50W 10N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 06N-11N ALONG 19W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 16W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 21W-27W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 07N42W TO 18N44W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 41W-47W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 09N57W TO 15N55W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 54W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS SUPPORTS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO THE GULF NEAR VERMILION BAY ALONG 25N94W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 22N. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. WHILE SE TO S WINDS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE FRONT...STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT AND THIS WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 90W BY LATE THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE AND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N68W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS FEATURE ALOFT IS TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WHICH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 69W-78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TO THE EAST AND WEST OF TOMAS IS EXPERIENCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. WITH THE TRACK OF TOMAS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MEANDERS ALONG 32N49W 28N57W TO 29N65W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 31N74W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE. POCKETS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 66W-77W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE...A SHEARLINE IS ANALYZED FROM 26N53W TO 23N62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 52W-63W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 40W AND 52W IS WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS FOUND FROM 24N47W TO BEYOND 32N45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 43W-48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N20W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN