000 AXNT20 KNHC 022345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS AT 03/0000 UTC IS NEAR 13.5N 75.0W...OR ABOUT 340 NM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI...AND ABOUT 280 NM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. TOMAS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EVEN THOUGH TOMAS HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...STRONG PRECIPITATION REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER OF TOMAS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 71W-74W...AND FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 74W-76W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 69W-78W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE CENTER FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 63W-67W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NE VENEZUELA...AND FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 80W-84W OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS ACROSS ALL OF COSTA RICA AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N12W ALONG 8N20W 6N30W 9N42W 11N54W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 9N19W TO 4N21W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION 4N-9N BETWEEN 18W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 27W-41W. A SECOND EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 14N42W TO 5N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N54W TO 10N57W WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 54W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH CENTERED OVER ERN TEXAS IS IMPACTING THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ALONG 30N93W 27N94W 23N96W AND INTO E CENTRAL MEXICO...AS OF 2100 UTC. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 29N90W TO 23N95W INDICATING A SHARP LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LESS INTENSE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND BEHIND THE SQUALL TO THE COLD FRONT. A PATCH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 84W-88W...AND ACROSS N CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTH FLORIDA IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STORMY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM TOMAS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING BRINGING STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 69W-78W...AND AREAS TO BOTH THE E AND W OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TOMAS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. TOMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N51W ALONG 29N59W 30N66W BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT LINES THE BORDER ALONG 31N/32N TO THE NE TIP OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 64W-82W...AND ACROSS N CENTRAL FLORIDA. S OF THE FRONT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N69W TO 25N75W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE. FARTHER SE...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ALONG 25N55W TO 21N65W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. FARTHER E...A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 48W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N46W 26N47W 23N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22N-29N. ACROSS THE ERN ATLC...A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 39N19W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N35W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON