000 AXNT20 KNHC 021803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS AT 02/1500 UTC IS NEAR 13.5N 72.6W...OR ABOUT 290 NM TO THE SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI...AND ABOUT 370 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. TOMAS IS MOVING WESTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CURACAO REPORTED FOUR INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REACHING LA PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM 10N NEAR CARTAGENA ON THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 11.5N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W... AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. MORE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE FLOW THAT IS AROUND TROPICAL STORM TOMAS...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE... TO THE SOUTH OF 14N/15N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA. HIGH CLOUDS FROM TOMAS ALREADY HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE CENTER OF TOMAS. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 7N24W 6N29W 8N37W...INTO NORTHERN COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 28W AND 29W...AND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 31W AND 33W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 9N18W 4N20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 38W/39W FROM 6N TO 13N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 37W AND 43W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N54W 11N55W 7N56W. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING THROUGH TEXAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO SUPPORTS A CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM LOUISIANA TO TEXAS. THE CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPEARS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N97W 28N93W 30N90W IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST WATERS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A LINE OF CONFLUENT WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A LINE OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS... THAT IS ABOUT 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 87W FROM 23N TO THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE AREA THAT IS NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO 30N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND 83W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM TOMAS OBVIOUSLY IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AT THIS MOMENT. CURACAO REPORTED FOUR INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REACHING LA PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. MORE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE FLOW THAT IS AROUND TROPICAL STORM TOMAS...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N/15N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA. HIGH CLOUDS FROM TOMAS ALREADY HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE CENTER OF TOMAS. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AWAY FROM TOMAS. IT EXTENDS ALONG 21N81W 18N86W INTO SOUTHERN BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 81W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM MEXICO TO THE BELIZE. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N52W TO 19N69W AT THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHEAST... COVERING MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE 72W. OTHER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CUBA...MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 50W. THE TROUGH THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 30N63W TO 32N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N72W TO 31N79W. THE LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 29N60W 30N70W...TO THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 31N81W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. ONE REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 25N52W 24N58W 20N64W 19N69W AT THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE/AXIS. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE 72W. A SECOND REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 32N49W 26N55W 25N59W 24N62W. THE COMPARATIVELY MOST PROMINENT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. A THIRD REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 30N56W 28N60W 25N65W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE/AXIS. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 28N47W 25N48W 21N54W. CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 41W AND 51W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N24W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. OTHER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 53W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT