000 AXNT20 KNHC 021140 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 72.0W AT 02/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 310 NM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 385 NM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. TOMAS CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED STRONG DEEP CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 68W-74W WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD. VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS RELAXED AND ALLOWED TOMAS TO GRADUALLY REGAIN STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM...CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL FRIDAY IS FORECAST AT WHICH TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STEER TOMAS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N13W 08N19W 06N30W 08N38W 06N48W 08N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE W AFRICA COAST BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 13W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 04N19W TO 09N18W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 18W-22W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 06N38W TO 13N37W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 32W-40W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 07N55W TO 14N53W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 26W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NW LOUISIANA NEAR SHREVEPORT THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW TO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 28N104W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 91W. ELSEWHERE... MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EXHIBITS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 29N TO THE NE GULF THEN SW TO THE EAST CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN. SE TO S WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF ARE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...EAST OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 85W-88W...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 27N...INCLUDING THE NEARBY ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS E OF 83W. WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF... STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT TODAY THAT SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 90W BY LATE THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE AND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N68W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS FEATURE ALOFT IS TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WHICH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED STRONG DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOCATED FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 68W-74W...INCLUDING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING FARTHER EAST TO THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 58W-68W. FARTHER WEST...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-84W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 50W AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W AND EXTENDS TO 31N62W. WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF 32N...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPS INTO THE DISCUSSION ZONE NEAR 32N45W AND EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW TO 24N49W THAT IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N48W ALONG 25N48W TO 22N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 42W-48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N21W. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE TROPICAL EAST ATLC... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N31W AND IS PROVIDING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 17W-25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN