000 AXNT20 KNHC 020553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 70.8W AT 02/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 315 NM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 435 NM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. TOMAS CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK BUT IS EXPERIENCING MARGINAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THEREFORE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 67W-71W. AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...GIVEN A FAVORABLE REGION OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM... AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING EXISTS BEYOND WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 06N20W 05N28W 07N38W 07N48W 10N56W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE W AFRICA COAST BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 13W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 03N19W TO 10N16W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 17W-21W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 05N38W TO 11N36W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 32W-42W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 07N57W TO 13N55W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 49W-58W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 23W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS NEAR NACOGDOCHES THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW TO NORTH- CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 29N104W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ABOUT 60/90 NM ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 92W. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EXHIBITS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N TO 90W WITH 15-20 KT SE TO S WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF EAST OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 85W-88W...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 27N...INCLUDING THE NEARBY ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF THIS MORNING... STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT BY LATE TUESDAY AND SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 90W BY LATE THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE AND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N69W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS FEATURE ALOFT IS TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WHICH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOCATED FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 67W-71W...INCLUDING ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING FARTHER EAST TO THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 59W-67W. FARTHER WEST...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-84W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 50W AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS ALONG 31N TO 73W. WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF 32N...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT ARE POSSIBLE. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPS INTO THE DISCUSSION ZONE NEAR 32N47W AND EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW TO 24N50W THAT IS SUPPORTING A WEAK FORMING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 27N50W TO BEYOND 32N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 42W-50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N23W. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE TROPICAL EAST ATLC... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N30W AND IS PROVIDING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 18W-28W...WHICH INCLUDES THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN