000 AXNT20 KNHC 012342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON NOV 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 69.7W AT 01/2100 UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF ARUBA...OR ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. TOMAS IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TOMAS CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION. AN EXPOSED CENTER RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEW CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 66W-71W. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST...SLOW AND TURN TO THE NORTH...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND GRADUALLY REINTENSIFY. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ...ITCZ... A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ JUST WEST OF SIERRA LEONE FROM 10N14W TO 4N16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 11W-14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 15W-19W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED W OF THIS TROUGH FROM 5N17W TO 5N25W TO ANOTHER EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 35W FROM 3N-10N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 33W-36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N37W TO 9N51W. A THIRD EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52/53W FROM 7N-14N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 50W-56W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES AGAIN FROM 10N55W TO TRINIDAD NEAR 10N62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS OVER E TEXAS FROM 34N95W TO BEYOND 30N91W PRODUCING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OVER LOUISIANA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. 5-10 KT E TO SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA S OF 27N. A PATCH OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND MORE SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IS T.S.TOMAS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 64W-69W. FURTHER S ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 69W-76W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 80W-84W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND E HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N65W PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SW SHEAR OVER TOMAS. EXPECT TOMAS TO MOVE W TO 73W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N62W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N49W TO 26N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 44W-49W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N23W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE THREE SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE TROPICS TO MOVE W AT 15 KT WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA