000 AXNT20 KNHC 010553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON NOV 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 66.5W AT 01/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 185 NM NE OF CURACAO AND ABOUT 230 NM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. TOMAS CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK BUT IS EXPERIENCING MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THEREFORE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 61W-65W. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED DUE TO THIS VERTICAL SHEAR...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX BY WEDNESDAY AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RESTRENGTHENING THEREAFTER EXISTS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 06N11W 05N20W 08N31W 07N38W 10N49W 08N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 05N-13N ALONG 31W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 23W-33W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 05N-13N ALONG 49W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W BUT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN VERY DRY AIR. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N...MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ALSO EXHIBITS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 28N WITH 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 94W. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOOKING AHEAD...AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH STRONG NW TO N WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE AND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N62W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS FEATURE ALOFT IS TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WHICH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GOES-13 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED WEST OF THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS LOCATED FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 61W-65W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF SAINT LUCIA. FARTHER WEST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO 16N79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 76W-81W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND THIS GENERAL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCING DOMAIN OF TOMAS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TO NEAR 75W BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 55W AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS SUPPORTS A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N64W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ALONG 28N ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPS INTO THE DISCUSSION ZONE NEAR 32N51W AND EXTENDS AN AXIS SW TO 25N55W THAT IS SUPPORTING STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 26N52W TO A 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 34N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN