000 AXNT20 KNHC 311153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS AT 31/1200 UTC IS NEAR 14.0N 63.3W...MOVING WNW NEAR 7 KT. TOMAS IS ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM W OF ST. LUCIA AND ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS IN AN OUTER RAINBAND SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-61W...AND NEAR THE STORM CENTER FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 62W-64W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 58W-61W...AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 61W-65W. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 7N24W 11N30W 8N36W 7N50W 10N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 7W-22W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 15N27W TO 5N26W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 24W-34W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N43W TO 6N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 41W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE E PACIFIC. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC AND SE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OFF THE WRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW. EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE TOMAS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TOMAS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN E OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE WRN ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT PROVIDING FAIR SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. MOIST SWLY FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-83W. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NW. THE ERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE TOMAS AS IT TRACKS WNW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W CONTINUING TOWARDS THE WSW TO NEAR 28N66W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR 27N74W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE WRN ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE COAST OF THE SE UNITED STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E CENTERED S OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 33N27W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 48W-51W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 34N31W SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE S OF THE AZORES. TO THE S...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N E OF 45W ENHANCING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON