000 AXNT20 KNHC 310602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS AT 31/0600 UTC IS NEAR 13.8N 62.4W...MOVING WNW NEAR 7 KT. TOMAS IS ABOUT 80 NM WNW OF ST. VINCENT...AND ABOUT 83 NM W OF ST. LUCIA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS IN AN OUTER RAINBAND E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 57W-60W...AND NEAR THE STORM CENTER FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 61W-64W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 9N-18N BETWEEN 56W-61W...AND FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 61W-64W. EVEN THOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER IMPACTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THIS AREA. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 9N26W 6N34W 8N42W 6N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 13W-19W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 14N26W TO 4N27W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 24W-28W...AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 28W-32W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 11N42W TO 3N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 34W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE E PACIFIC. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF S CAROLINA. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE TOMAS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TOMAS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN E OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE WRN ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT PROVIDING FAIR SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN W OF TOMAS. MOIST SWLY FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THIS UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 74W-82W. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE ERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE TOMAS AS IT TRACKS WWD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W CONTINUING TOWARDS THE WSW TO NEAR 28N67W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR 26N74W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE WRN ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB AND 1021 MB HIGHS OFF THE COAST OF S CAROLINA NEAR 32N74W AND 33N68W RESPECTIVELY. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N51W TO 27N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N BETWEEN 48W-51W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 34N32W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N30W. TO THE S...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N E OF 45W ENHANCING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON