000 AXNT20 KNHC 291151 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM SHARY IS CENTERED NEAR 29.3N 65.7W OR ABOUT 190 NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 29/1200 UTC MOVING NW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 31N64W TO 25N70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N51W TO 31N67W. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N53W THROUGH A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 9N54W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N53W MOVING WNW 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WITH ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG COVERING THE AREA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 48W-58W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUYANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N24W 5N32W 6N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER THE W AFRICA NEAR 25N14W ALONG 15N18W TO 8N24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 11N15W ACROSS THE ITCZ NEAR 6N25W 8N40W TO 12N48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. EXTENDING OVER THE N GULF TO 27N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF TAMPA CONTINUING ALONG 25N90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 22N94W OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 91W AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT W OF 86W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SE GULF WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 22N86W TO JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR EVERGLADES CITY. THE N GULF CONTINUES TO CLEAR IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SW GULF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY SE BRINGING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SE GULF LATER TODAY AND THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATER TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND IS USHERING IN A DRY STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT ACROSS THE THE NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SWATH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA AS WELL AS WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COLOMBIA TO BELIZE. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY REACH SOME THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH HEAVIER ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM SHARY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE ATLC BASIN THIS MORNING...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE U.S. INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N78W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE TO N OF TAMPA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N77W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH TO NEAR EVERGLADES CITY ON THE W COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 29N AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 27N-29N. A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 24N69W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. A SWATH OF DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS TO W OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM SHARY COVERING A PORTION OF THE W ATLC WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM BEYOND 32N71W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W AND IS BEING DRAWN NE INTO SHARY. THE REMNANTS OF THE 1010 MB SURFACE LOW...PREVIOUSLY IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS NOW A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N43W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY TO THE E OF THE LOW FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 39W-44W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 60W WITH A WEAKNESS NEAR THE ABOVE SURFACE LOW AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW