000 AXNT20 KNHC 281141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A NEAR STATIONARY 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER 1000 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 27N41W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N43W THROUGH THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LOW AND WITHIN 60 NM SURROUNDING THE LOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE LOW. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N53W 25N56W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 22N57W TO 21N60W SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N63W AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N50W TO 25N57W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 57W-62W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N45W THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 6N47W TO 3N48W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION CENTERED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-9N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 3N-14N BETWEEN 41W-52W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N18W 6N31W 7N42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 10W-17W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM OF LINE FROM 4N18W TO 9N34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE U.S. CONUS. AT 28/0900 UTC THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO ACROSS S TEXAS NEAR MATAGORDA BAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ACROSS VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 27N95W TO JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 25N TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI TO PENSACOLA FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF S OF 22N W OF 87W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE ENTIRE GULF BUT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N89W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W AND S OF 22N TO OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 90W-95W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH AND COUPLED WITH ANY LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S 13N W OF 76W AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 120 NM OF LINE FROM 18N80W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SWATH OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W INCLUDING THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING W INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER 500 NM ENE OF BERMUDA LEAVING THE W ATLC W OF 65W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC AND IS ROUGHLY CENTERED 23N63W EXTENDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 45W-80W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...SEE ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FAR E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW