000 AXNT20 KNHC 271755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N44W TO 13N37W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS AS A BROAD CYCLONIC PERTURBATION WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION BETWEEN 37W AND 47W. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 27/1210 UTC CONFIRMED N-NE WINDS TO 25 KT FROM 06N TO 12N WITHIN 210 NM WEST OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 42W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 33W-44W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 09N43W IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THE WAVE AND IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE ONGOING CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N12W 05N21W 09N38W 04N45W 04N51W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 09W-12W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N21W TO 09N30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF NEAR 28N90W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E-NE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC BEYOND 32N78W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS PAIRED UP WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH CENTERED OVER BELIZE AND MOSTLY INFLUENCES THE SW GULF AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT WHICH IN TURN IS RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES ALONG 24N...ISOLATED SHOWERS DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE OCCURRING S OF 26N E OF 89W. A WESTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 25N95W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MUCH OF THE GULF WITH 10-15 KT S-SE WINDS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS INLAND ACROSS THE SE CONUS THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS...AND IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE ANOTHER WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL RE-INVIGORATE THE FRONT AND PUSH INTO THE NW GULF AS A COLD FRONT BY EARLY THURSDAY PROVIDING STRONG NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER BELIZE NEAR 17N88W AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE BETWEEN 66W TO BEYOND 95W. MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXISTS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL STABLE AND SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BASIN...HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-80W...AND IN THE VICINITY OF TRINIDAD AND COASTAL NE VENEZUELA FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 58W-63W. AT THE SURFACE...A WESTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHWARD TO 13N AND PROVIDE THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ADVECTING WESTWARD WITHIN THAT FLOW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 60W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N55W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT...INDUCED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS LOCATED ALONG 24N W OF 76W THAT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EAST OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N58W THAT CONTINUES TO REFLECT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 19N54W TO 26N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 50W-55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 48W-58W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N41W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 31N38W AND SW TO 22N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE CENTER FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 37W-40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 33W-38W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N19W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO 18N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN