000 AXNT20 KNHC 271150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N35W 7N40W TO 2N42W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N23W 7N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 8N-10N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER NEW ENGLAND AND TO OVER THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF RICHARD...EXTENDS ALONG 94W/95W FROM 22N-25N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN REMAINS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 90W TO OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR SE GULF GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND HONDURAS NEAR 17N83W COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH ANY LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO NE NICARAGUA NEAR THE HONDURAS BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 67W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH 550 NM ENE OF BERMUDA LEAVING THE W ATLC W OF 60W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 29N57W TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N56W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 26N50W TO 20N61W. AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 48W-51W AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 51W-58W. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR 28N37W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N39W 28N41W THROUGH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N41W TO 24N44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 33W-41W. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FAR E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW