000 AXNT20 KNHC 270002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N35W TO 1N40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS AS A BROAD CYCLONIC PERTURBATION WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION...AS WELL AS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 01N-11N BETWEEN 30W-43W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 6N30W 8N35W THEN RESUMES NEAR 5N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AND NORTHERN LIBERIA OFF TO 55 NM. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF WITH AXIS SW TO NE ORIENTED ALONG 21N97W TO 29N83W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS QUICKLY WEAKENING AND GIVING WAY TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSING ACROSS SE TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF WITH PRE-FRONTAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI SW TO 26N95W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS THE 1005 MB REMNANT LOW OF RICHARD CENTERED NEAR 22N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ...TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 91W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND BECOME STATIONARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N79W... AND EXTENDS DRY/STABLE AIR BETWEEN 66W TO BEYOND 90W. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL E-SE TRADEWINDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 14N W OF 78W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...A WESTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS AXIS TO THE EAST/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SFC ANTICYCLONIC 15-25 KT FLOW IS OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC...AROUND A STRONG 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 35N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE...ANALYZED FROM 25N52W TO 19N55W GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 50W-56W. TO THE NE OF THIS FEATURE...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N41W THAT COLLOCATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND 25N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM N-NE OF THE LOW NEAR 32N37W TO THE LOW CENTER...THEN S TO 23N42W. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS TROPICAL ORIGINS...IT CONTINUES EXHIBITING BAROCLINIC CHARACTERISTICS AND THEREFORE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE LOCATED WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER IN THE N QUADRANT. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 35W-40W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 35-40W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA