000 AXNT20 KNHC 260602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 91.6W AT 26/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 17 NM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MOVING WNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. RICHARD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 93W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N29W TO 3N33W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND WITHIN A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 6N-9N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 7N23W 6N30W 5N37W TO 7N43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 36W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 25W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE MOST OF THE GULF FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WHILE THE INITIAL SURGE IS MOVING OFF THE E COAST OF THE US INTO THE W ATLC. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH RICHARD COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR SE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W ALONG 23N84W TO OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N79W. LOWER PRESSURE NOW COVERS THE GULF AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS RETREATED TO OVER THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR SE GULF GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE NW GULF BRINGING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH RICHARD IS ANCHORED S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N81W AND COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE/ STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO IMPACT MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 80W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N72W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 20N63W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH 400 NM ENE OF BERMUDA LEAVING MOST OF THE W ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 48W-58W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N39W SUPPORTING A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N40W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 25N37W TO 20N39W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 21N34W 27N35W TO 28N41W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 32W-38W AND FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 38W-43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 13N46W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 41W-43W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW