000 AXNT20 KNHC 252351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD IS NEAR 18.1N 91.2W AT 25/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 48 NM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO. RICHARD IS MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A BURST OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF RICHARD AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 88W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO AROUND THE SW QUADRANT FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 90W-92W. FURTHER WEAKENING INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 13N26W TO 2N33W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LIE IN A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE BETWEEN 24W-37W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS BOTH INDICATE THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THIS AREA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO HAS MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 24W-38W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 12N25W 6N33W 7N50W 9N63W. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION BESIDES THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC GYRE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM T.D. RICHARD COVERS THE SE GULF WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WRN CUBA. EXPECT SURFACE SLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NW GULF AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS T.D. RICHARD EMERGES BACK OVER WATER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. RICHARD. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN IN THE WAVE OF RICHARD ENHANCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...JAMAICA...CUBA AND THE AREA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN TRADEWIND FLOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE IS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N81W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICHARD MOVES NW OUT OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 34W61W IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR SW N ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-68W IS SUPPORTING A SHEAR LINE...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM 31N43W TO 24N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N39W IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 24N40W WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 22N38W 18N40W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARING TO THE NE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-29N BETWEEN 34W-37W...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 37W-40W. DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF SHEAR...THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SW ALONG 18N45W TO 10N51W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 41W-45W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE W AFRICAN COAST WITH AXIS FROM 31N31W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON