000 AXNT20 KNHC 251158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 89.9W AT 25/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 135 NM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. RICHARD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 17N INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 22N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N24W TO 4N27W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION JUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 24W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N36W TO 18N39W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 17N30W TO 27N37W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 6N17W 6N24W THEN RESUMES NEAR 5N30W 4N33W 9N45W 7N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 16N42W TO 11N46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO 11N BETWEEN 15W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 2N25W TO 4N36W AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW GULF FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS BUT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 83W-88W AND INLAND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO GIVE WAY TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOWER PRESSURE ONLY COVERING THE FAR E GULF AND ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB IN THE W ATLC AND CONTINUING TO GIVE THE GULF SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IMPACTING THE MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE GULF AND OVER THE S GULF WHERE THE OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD COVERS THE AREA S OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM RICHARD CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 78W-84W INCLUDING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IMPACTING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING E OF 78W WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS CUBA TO BEYOND 32N76W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH 120 NM WNW OF BERMUDA LEAVING MOST OF THE W ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N SUPPORTING A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N46W ALONG 26N57W TO 23N73W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE SE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND E OF THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 27W-71W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N41W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 37W-44W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E ATLC N OF 24N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW