000 AXNT20 KNHC 241800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM RICHARD BECAME A HURRICANE AT 1500 UTC AND IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 87.5W AT 24/1800 UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY...MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N TO 19N W OF 85W. THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM RICHARD IS ALSO DRAWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE WEST AND NW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENT...RICHARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N30W TO 17N35W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N34W. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED ABOUT THE AXIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 28W-32W. THE WAVE IS LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND SUPPRESSING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 7N28W 12N34W. THEN...IT RESUMES NEAR 9N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 8N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED BETWEEN THE TWO SECTIONS OF THE ITCZ FROM 15N41W TO 8N48W...GENERATING ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 70 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FAR EAST GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FAR WESTERN ATLC. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA OF DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SW FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE NW BASIN WITH A WEAK JETSTREAK EMBEDDED IN IT ENHANCING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN N OF 26N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE FAR SE BASIN INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 25N E OF 84W. OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 15 KT TO 20 KT SURFACE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE RICHARD IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY MOVING CLOSE TO THE COAST OF BELIZE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM RICHARD IS ALSO DRAWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE WEST AND NW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SOME POSSIBLE SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC BASIN AND SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 32N49W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 27N57W TO 25N65W...BECOMING A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE TO 25N73W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR LINE. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DATA INDICATES A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTING TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE SHORTWAVE NEAR 24N71W. A MID LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR TO THE SE OF THIS SYSTEM. A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST ATLC SPINNING NEAR 18N41W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 34W-38W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT AT SURFACE LEVEL. THUS...A SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD BE ANALYZED ON THE FOLLOWING SURFACE ANALYSES. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 24N E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA