000 AXNT20 KNHC 240549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS NEAR 16.4N 85.1W AT 24/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 48 NM ENE OF GUANAJA HONDURAS AND ABOUT 195 NM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 85W-86W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W TO 21N81W. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE IS NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 23N28W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 19N31W TO 16N32W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. INVERTED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS WELL DEFINED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING SSW UPPER SHEAR AND JUST E OF A LARGE UPPER LOW WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION N OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 27W-32W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 4N16W 7N24W THE RESUMES NEAR 9N29W 7N36W TO 8N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 14N13W TO 9N22W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 20W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N43W TO 8N47W WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 12N44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 1W-20W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 23W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NW GULF FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS OVER NE MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WELL INLAND. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER GEORGIA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST GIVING THE GULF RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IMPACTING THE ENTIRE GULF AND SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 25N87W TO 26N91W AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 87W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM RICHARD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-82W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IMPACTING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES E OF 72W WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N75W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR NEAR 23N79W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N59W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO 27N68W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N73W LEAVING THE W ATLC W OF 75W UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N51W 29N60W TO 29N69W AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N52W TO 24N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N43W SUPPORTING A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE LOW THAT HAS MOVED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 19N48W. THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 33W-45W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W ANCHORED INLAND OVER AFRICA TO 35W ALONG 15N. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 45W ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW