000 AXNT20 KNHC 232358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS NEAR 16.2N 84.4W AT 24/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 140 NM E OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS. RICHARD IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RICHARD SKIRTS THE HONDURAN COASTLINE TOWARDS BELIZE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTER OF RICHARD FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 83W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 82W-88W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FARTHER E DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 77W-82W. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 21N27W TO 17N31W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS AND CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1011 MB LOW ANALYZED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N30W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 28W-30W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FARTHER SE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 24W-27W. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED BY SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER W AFRICA. WITH THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST TO PERSIST...LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 5N15W 7N21W DISCONNECTED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS RESUMING ALONG 10N29W 7N35W 10N42W 8N50W 10N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 14N44W TO 8N46W. A LARGE BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION IS MAKING ITS WAY OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 13W-18W POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 20W-24W ASSOCIATED WITH A WIND SURGE OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE N ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER ERN N CAROLINA. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF `5-20 KT IS AROUND THE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DRY AIR MASS IS IMPACTING THE AREA SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE GULF. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTED NW FROM TROPICAL STORM RICHARD. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE GULF DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RICHARD MOVING NW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS BRINGING HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CIRCULATION OF RICHARD IS ALSO DRAWING MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO S OF HISPANIOLA W OF 71W. RICHARD IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN AS RICHARD MOVES SLOWLY W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER ERN N CAROLINA IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR SW N ATLC. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONFLUENCE AND MOISTURE FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE NE. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N57W 29N73W...AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 32N50W TO 26N64W BECOMING A SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NRN CUBA ALONG 24N73W 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH/SHEARLINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR TO THE SE OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N41W IS SUPPORTING A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 20N47W. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO ENHANCING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER W AFRICA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 36W-45W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR ERN ATLC SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TO THE N...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS. 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