000 AXNT20 KNHC 231203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD AT 23/1200 UTC IS NEAR 15.8N 83.0W. TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS MOVING WESTWARD 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE STORM IS ABOUT 50 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS ALONG THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N THE WEST OF 80W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 83W. ...TROPICAL WAVE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N24W 15N26W 10N28W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N26W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS GOING DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR AIDING THAT DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. ...THE ITCZ... 10N29W 8N37W 10N44W. THE ITCZ IS NOT APPARENT TO THE EAST OF THE 18N24W 10N28W TROPICAL WAVE...AND IT IS NOT APPARENT TO THE WEST OF THE 14N44W 8N46W SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 25W AND 29W. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY MAY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE 18N24W 10N28W TROPICAL WAVE THAN WITH THE ITCZ. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 16W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 17W...AWAY FROM THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA...INTO WESTERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEYOND THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF WATERS EVERYWHERE ELSE. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AROUND A RIDGE THAT IS THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N89W TO 24N94W TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS IN BETWEEN THE FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM RICHARD TO THE WEST...AND THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS TO THE EAST. THE COMPARATIVELY MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND 76W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ADVANCING LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...IN THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N55W...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N64W...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N62W 15N64W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W...MOVING WESTWARD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N703W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES IN A BAND OF MOISTURE THAT IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM CUBA NEAR 22N77W THROUGH 27N67W BEYOND 32N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N55W...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N64W...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N58W 27N63W 24N67W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO 30N20W AND TO 30N31W...CURVING TO A 19N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 11N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N44W 8N46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W...NEAR THE BASE OF THE 32N10W 11N49W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT