000 AXNT20 KNHC 230602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD AT 23/0600 UTC IS NEAR 15.8N 82.6W. TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS MOVING WESTWARD 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE STORM IS ABOUT 65 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS ALONG THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY LISTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC... AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 77W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N23W 15N25W 10N27W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 22W AND 27W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROPICAL WAVE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. ...THE ITCZ... 12N28W 8N37W 10N44W 10N48W 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W ACTUALLY MAY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE 19N23W 10N27W TROPICAL WAVE THAN WITH THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 13W...FAR AWAY FROM THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA...INTO WESTERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE AREA OF MEXICO THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEYOND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF 28N96W 27N90W TO THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF WATERS EVERYWHERE ELSE. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AROUND A RIDGE THAT IS THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N93W TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS IN BETWEEN THE FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM RICHARD TO THE WEST...AND THE ADVANCING LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS TO THE EAST. THE COMPARATIVELY MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ADVANCING LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W...IN THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 25N62W...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N64W... TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES IN A BAND OF MOISTURE THAT IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM CUBA NEAR 21N77W THROUGH 27N70W BEYOND 32N58W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 25N62W...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N64W...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA ISLAND ARCHIPELAGO TO 30N30W 27N37W TO A 20N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 11N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W. OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N45W...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N46W TO 8N47W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W...NEAR THE BASE OF THE 20N42W 11N49W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT