000 AXNT20 KNHC 230004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD AT 23/0000 UTC IS NEAR 15.8N 82.3W. RICHARD IS MOVING WEST AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE STORM IS ABOUT 130 MI...130 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/ HONDURAS BORDER...OR ABOUT 285 MI...465 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 79W-84W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCTIVE TO STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 17N22W TO 14N25W TO 9N27W MOVING NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N25W. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 20W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 25W-30W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ...THE ITCZ... AN ITCZ AXIS IS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 12N28W 7N37W 11N46W TO GUYANA NEAR 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 30W-33W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 15N44W TO 9N46W. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THIS TROUGH NEAR 13N46W WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 41W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT NE WINDS OVER THE E GULF BETWEEN 83W-90W ...AND 15-20 KT SE WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED WITH 20 KT EASTERLY WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WITH TROUGH AXIS OVER FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER TEXAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ADVECTING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BESIDES T.S. RICHARD...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 73W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 77W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA E OF 77W...AND S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 65W-69W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 16N82W. WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-84W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 14N72W. EXPECT...T.S. RICHARD TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 73W-79W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N61W TO 27N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N31W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC...AND FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE NW WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA