000 AXNT20 KNHC 221158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD AT 22/1200 UTC IS NEAR 15.9N 80.7W. TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE STORM IS ABOUT 200 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...EVEN REACHING WESTERN JAMAICA. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO A REMNANT TROUGH AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE BAHAMAS AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N22W 12N24W 7N26W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N24W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W TO 15N21W...FROM 11N26W TO 13N35W TO 15N41W. THE ITCZ IS NOT APPARENT TO THE WEST OF THE 42W/43W SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N WITHIN 300 NM OF THE AFRICA COAST. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 10N TO 18N. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N ALONG THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 87W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITH A FLAT AND WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N89W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 71W/72W...TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA 6 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA TO EL SALVADOR. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N64W TO 28N70W TO 26N75W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT IN BERMUDA FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC WAS NEARLY TWO INCHES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N76W 26N66W BEYOND 32N56W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 29N27W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N37W...TO 13N34W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO NEAR 31N17W 26N26W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N41W 29N50W 24N60W 22N68W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT