000 AXNT20 KNHC 220558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD AT 22/0300 UTC IS NEAR 15.8N 80.4W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD 2 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS ABOUT 200 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS OF 16N80W..AND FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO A REMNANT TROUGH AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE BAHAMAS AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...AND FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF EL SALVADOR. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N21W 10N24W 6N26W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N24W. THE PATTERN OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 17N BETWEEN 15W AND 24W HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN THIS WEATHER SYSTEM AND THE TROUGH AND 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N41W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 9N26W TO 7N34W TO 11N40W TO 10N45W 7N50W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 7N58W. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N40W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N41W...TO 10N42W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 89W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITH A FLAT AND WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 71W/72W...TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OF BERMUDA TO 31N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N67W TO 26N74W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT IN BERMUDA FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC WAS NEARLY TWO INCHES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N77W 26N66W BEYOND 32N59W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 30N30W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N37W...TO 13N34W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. A COLD FRONT PASSES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 30N19W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N19W TO 26N26W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N43W 27N55W 24N62W 22N70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT