000 AXNT20 KNHC 210605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN AT 21/0300 UTC IS NEAR 17.5N 81.1W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING EASTWARD 2 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS ABOUT 180 NM TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER JAMAICA...AND THE WATERS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. ...TROPICAL WAVE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 17W AND 24W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N37W...THROUGH THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER...TO 9N41W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 15N38.5W...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM NORTHWESTERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE...TO 9N19W 7N29W 10N39W 11N43W...TO NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA NEAR 7N58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 20W. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...TO 27N85W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 24N...FROM MEXICO EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N80W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W...TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LOUISIANA INTO EAST TEXAS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH AND FRONT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITH A FLAT AND WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SPANS CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 65W/66W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 65W AND 66W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 27N75W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS THAT ARE ABOUT 800 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N75W 26N70W BEYOND 32N59W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N27W TO 25N37W TO 14N40W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT