000 AXNT20 KNHC 202337 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 17N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 77W-81W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS OVER THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EAST. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA ALONG 19W S OF 13N MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME E 0F 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 19W-24W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE AT 8N12W TO 10N19W 6N25W 11N40W TO GUYANA AT 7N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 3W-10W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 10N-17N...AND FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 27W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N92W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE HOWEVER OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 91W-93W DUE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR... THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... BESIDES THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION... CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA....AND CUBA BETWEEN 70W-80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 73W-75W...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 62W-66W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-83W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N63W MOVING W. EXPECT...THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 72W-79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 65W-72W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N48W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N22W 28N26W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 26N30W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO 19N38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 36W-41W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC...AND FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA