000
AXNT20 KNHC 192327
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND 
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 17N83W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 76W-84W. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS OVER THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE 
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM N LIBERIA AT 6N11W TO 6N20W 9N30W 
8N40W TO N BRAZIL AT 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 13W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 20N-25N.   

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 29N89W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE HOWEVER 
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 82W-86W. 5-10 KT 
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N 
BETWEEN 77W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR... SHOWERS TO 
ADVECT OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BESIDES THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION... A 
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER PANAMA 
AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 
74W-76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA....AND 
CUBA BETWEEN 71W-81W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 74W. A SMALL UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER BARBADOS NEAR 13N59W. EXPECT...LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS 
FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 72W-76W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N55W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD 
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N34W 
20N50W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES W TO THE S BAHAMAS 
ALONG 20N60W 23N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS 
ARE E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 63W-70W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1009 
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 12N38W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO 17N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 36W-38W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS FOR...THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E 
WITH SHOWERS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA