000 AXNT20 KNHC 191200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. AT 19/0900 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 16N78W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W INLAND TO OVER HONDURAS TO NEAR 15N87W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 21N BETWEEN 78W-85W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 76W-86W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N9W 5N15W 9N30W 6N42W 2N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 19N19W TO 12N21W PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 16N34W ALONG 14N37W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N38W TO 10N40W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 11N-16N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-13W INCLUDING THE COAST OF W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 15W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N E OF 86W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NE MEXICO TO OVER THE FAR NW GULF W OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ARE W OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO MERIDA MEXICO GIVING THE AREA W OF THIS LINE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH SE OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA NEAR 28N88W. CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR THE ACTIVITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N78W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. REMNANT MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-76W. ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED N/S UPPER LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH SOME ISOLATED FAST MOVING LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITH THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 16N67W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT VINCENT ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 26N W OF 63W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 35W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N39W SW ALONG 26N43W TO 22N49W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N59W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N77W. REMNANT MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 61W-78W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N63W WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 24N33W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SW TROUGH 21N17W ALONG 17N40W TO 10N50W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N43W TO 16N46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW