000 AXNT20 KNHC 190533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. AT 19/0300 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 19N81W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W INLAND TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N78W TO 17N82W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 77W-85W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 4N16W 6N26W 4N34W 4N43W 3N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 19N19W TO 12N20W PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N36W TO 7N42W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 15N33W TO 13N39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N E OF 19W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 17W-20W AND FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 22W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE E GULF WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ARE GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 87W. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH JUST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR THE ACTIVITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 17N79W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF 18N BETWEEN 72-79W. ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED N/S UPPER LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W UNDER RATHER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 35W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N40W SW ALONG 25N45W TO 20N54W BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 21N61W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N76W. REMNANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 62W-78W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N66W WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 26N26W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N20W TO NEAR 24N17W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS SW ALONG 16N38W TO 10N48W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N42W TO 16N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW