000 AXNT20 KNHC 190000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 18 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF N NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 79W-84W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS OVER THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM N LIBERIA AT 6N11W TO 4N15W 6N27W 4N35W TO N BRAZIL AT 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 13W-16W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 24N-29N ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 29N89W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE HOWEVER OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 81W-89W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR... CONVECTION TO ADVECT N FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO W CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BESIDES THE LOW AND TROUGHS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 70W-79W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND NW NICARAGUA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 86W-89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 67W-74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N76W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N69W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N42W 22N50W 21N60W E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 70W-78W. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 13N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 9N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA