000 AXNT20 KNHC 181805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON OCT 18 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N83W...ABOUT 30 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARD THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA GOES FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS ON TOP OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W...AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SOUTHEASTERN LIBERIA TO 3N16W 4N23W 3N30W 3N40W...ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL...INTO CENTRAL FRENCH GUIANA AND CENTRAL SURINAME. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 46W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N19W 10N21W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 22W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N36W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH MEXICO DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS NOW PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN GULF WATERS...INTO MEXICO THROUGH 20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING COMPARATIVELY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD SURFACE-TO-MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND 80W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO SOUTHERN COASTAL JAMAICA BETWEEN 76W AND 79W... IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND CLOSE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE GUADELOUPE PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE MOST PROBABLE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS PUSHING UP AGAINST THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE LINE FROM LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO A POINT THAT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS OCCURRING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR A POINT THAT IS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND CONTINUING TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W IS RELATED TO THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 25N76W 26N51W BEYOND 32N41W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 26N50W TO 22N60W 22N70W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES FROM 22N70W...TO THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N77W. THIS LOW CENTER IS THE REMNANT OF PAULA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N41W 27N45W 22N50W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N50W 21N60W... AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 24N20W 15N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 27N30W TO 20N40W TO 17N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT