000
AXNT20 KNHC 162322
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

7N25W 7N32W 9N37W 8N43W 7N50W TO 8N69W IN NORTHERN COASTAL 
GUYANA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 4N
BETWEEN 28W AND 34W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 29W AND 30W...AND 
FROM 7N TO 11N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 35W. OTHER 
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM SOUTHWESTERN MAURITANIA
NEAR 18N15W TO 12N20W TO 7N23W. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 19W
AND 25W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N37W 10N39W 5N41W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 31W AND 42W.
ONE CELL OF RAINSHOWERS IS WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 
10N52W...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 110W...FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...TO 10N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS 
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALSO COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. THIS 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES WITH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW 
THAT IS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE 
WESTERLY FLOW THAT IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS PART OF AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW 
THAT IS RELATED TO A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 30N72W TO 29N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO 25N94W TO 17N97W
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N59W...
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA ISLANDS. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER 
COVERS PARTS OF VENEZUELA...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 8N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
PANAMA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 86W. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS PUSHING UP AGAINST
THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG 74W/75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 
30N72W TO 29N78W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N57W TO 26N65W TO 24N72W...TO THE 1012 MB REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF PAULA THAT IS ABOUT 80 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 22.5N77W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W...AND WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N55W 28N57W...AND 24N71W 22N76W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 33W/34W...THROUGH 32N TO 14N. 
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N30W...CURVING 
TO 32N27W 28N30W 24N40W 23N46W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 25N51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT