000
AXNT20 KNHC 161743
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N18W 07N27W 10N37W 07N43W 04N54W. 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 09N17W TO 
21N13W THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 14W-24W. ANOTHER 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 06N43W TO 15N35W. A BROAD AREA 
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH AND ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 
GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 32W-42W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 21W-30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 30N94W MOVING E. 
10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE . 
EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 13N75W 7N78W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
PANAMA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 75W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FURTHER N ALONG THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. MORE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS 
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 85W-89W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W WITH 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS W OF 78W. A 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST NE OF BARBADOS NEAR 
15N59W MOVING W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 
72W. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE CYCLOGENESIS N OF PANAMA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W 25N70W TO 
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 72W-76W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FRONT. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS NEAR 26N52W NOTED AS A SMALL 
SWIRL. A LONG SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC ALONG 31N28W 28N30W 24N40W 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 31W-34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE ALSO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 31W. A 1016 MB HIGH IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N24W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N34W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT... 
THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N50W IN 24 HOURS WITH 
SHOWERS.      

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA