000 AXNT20 KNHC 161047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N18W 07N27W 10N37W 07N43W 04N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 09N17W TO 21N13W THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 14W-24W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 06N43W TO 15N35W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 32W-42W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 21W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N68W PRODUCING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ADVECTION OF MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND NORTHWARD TO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ENHANCED BY THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. MAINLY N-NE SURFACE WINDS UP TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN THIS MORNING. THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TRANSLATES E-NE ALONG THE GULF COAST LOCATING OVER THE W ATLC BY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N68W COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. VERY DRY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 13N E OF 78W ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY...MAINLY W OF 78W...MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA LARGELY REMAINING S OF 20N. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 09N79W TO 14N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-80W AND S OF 16N BETWEEN 80W-85W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS BELOW 20 KT AS NOTED ON AN EARLIER 16/0144 UTC ASCAT PASS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING SW TO 25N73W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W AND INTO THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF PAULA...A 1012 MB LOW...CENTERED NEAR 23N78W. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OR REMNANT LOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN MAINE AND AN ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ALSO SKIRTS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N W OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE PRIMARY FRONT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E TO 23N56W THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N50W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1016 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 29N51W AND 22N51W. FARTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 25W-42W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT MEANDERS ALONG 32N28W 25N43W INTO A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N52W THEN TO 23N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH W OF 40W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N26W COVERS THE FAR E ATLC AND SUPPORTS OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS N OF 16N SE OF A LINE FROM 32N23W TO 16N43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN