000 AXNT20 KNHC 160000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N16W 7N26W 8N37W 6N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE AFRICAN COASTLINE ALONG 19N14W TO 10N16W SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 15W-22W. SCATTED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 24W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 34W-42W NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 38W FROM 6N-13N. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING MAINLY SW-WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AREAS OF PATCHY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO NLY SURFACE WINDS BANKING AGAINST THE COASTLINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ENHANCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER SE TEXAS. MAINLY N-NE SURFACE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE ACROSS THE BASIN DECREASING ACROSS THE NW GULF. EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF PAULA HAVE NOW MOVED NWD BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS ERN CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. TO THE S...A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 80W-85W ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N BETWEEN 79W-86W...AND S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W-79W...AS WELL AS ACROSS COASTAL COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH LEVELS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED IN THIS AREA FROM 14N77W TO 9N80W INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE SOME OF THE CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W EXTENDING SW TO TH CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W. THE REMNANTS OF PAULA ARE BEGINNING TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE FRONT. AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION IS STILL EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OF THE NE UNITED STATES SUPPORTS THE FRONT. STRONG DRY AIR IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA IS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 28N55W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 30W-47W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ALONG 32N33W 27N42W 25N52W 22N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 30W-37W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N27W COVERS THE FAR E ATLC SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON