000
AXNT20 KNHC 151741
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1722 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LAST ADVISORY EMITTED AT 1500 UTC LOCATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
PAULA NEAR 22.8N 79.5W OR ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF CAIBARIEN 
CUBA. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM PAULA HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY THE 
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGHING THAT COVERS THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 
HOURS.   

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N16W 6N26W 8N35W...RESUMING WEST OF 
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 5N42W TO 5N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 15N E OF 21W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 
21W. WITHIN THIS REGION OF CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 11N37W TO 4N40W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BACK END OF A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NORTHERN 
HALF OF THE GULF N OF 25N WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE 
REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS BRINGING A DRY CONTINENTAL 
AIRMASS TO THE GULF. SURFACE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED 
OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS S OF 26N. THIS FLOW IS BANKING UP SOME VERY LIMITED 
MOISTURE TO THE COASTAL AREAS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N 
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE 
CONTINUES TO BUILD S FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND MOST 
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE 
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERLY FLOW 10-15 KT IS OBSERVED IN THE THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 
80W DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW 
RELATED TO THE REMNANT LOW OF PAULA AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW FROM 
THE GULF OF MEXICO FILTERING DOWN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 
THIS FLOW IS MOVING SOME LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE 
NW BASIN WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS BANKING UP ALONG 
THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED 
OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 13N83W 10N81W 9N77W. THIS 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED FROM 4N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 85W. THIS SYSTEM IS AFFECTING THE COASTAL 
WATERS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND WESTERN COLOMBIA 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N W 
OF 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF 
ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN US SEABOARD 
SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ENTERS THE WESTERN AREA OF 
DISCUSSION AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N65W 26N72W 23N78W. 
SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM 
WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 28N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
65 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 28N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO REFLECT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 
32N36W 27N41W 26N50W 21N58W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 27N. FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...BETWEEN A WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB 
HIGH NEAR 28N55W AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC 
ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N35W...BOTH PROVIDING 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THE OVERALL AREA OF DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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GARCIA/MONTALVO