000 AXNT20 KNHC 151130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 15/0900 UTC. T.D. PAULA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 80.2W AT 15/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 56 NM E OF VERADERO CUBA AND ABOUT 52 NM NW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA MOVING E AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PAULA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH REPORTS FROM CUBAN STATIONS INDICATING NO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAIBARIEN TO ACROSS ANDROS ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS TO 25N77W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N24W 8N36W 5N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 21W BETWEEN 10N-17N WITH A WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 12N37W TO 5N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16W-22W... WITHIN 275/325 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-42W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-27W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 8N-15W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... T.D. PAULA REMAINS INLAND OVER CUBA AND IS NOT AFFECTING THE GULF. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS E U.S. INTO THE GULF N OF 25N SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH TO NAPLES INTO THE GULF WATERS TO NEAR 23N87W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA DOMINATES THE S GULF DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE N SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 22N W OF 90W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WITH DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE GULF N OF 22N LEAVING ALL BUT THE SW GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N79W ALONG 14N82W TO 10N81W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-19N W OF 81W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER HAITI INTO THE GULF OF GONAVE. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 9N80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 73W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E U.S. AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 74W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N74W DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR VERO BEACH. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N71W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 55W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 29N57W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N38W TO 24N50W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N35W ALONG 28N45W 26N53W TO 21N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 48W AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. THE WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N56W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW