000 AXNT20 KNHC 150548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM PAULA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 81.4W AT 15/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 13 NM W OF VERADERO CUBA AND ABOUT 115 NM WNW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA MOVING E AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DATA INDICATES TROPICAL STORM PAULA HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WELL NE OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 23N81W TO ACROSS ANDROS ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS TO 24N77W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 8N19W 6N28W 9N37W 7N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W BETWEEN 9N-18N WITH A WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 12N35W TO 6N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 32W-43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 17W-32W AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 9N-13N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 11N-17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM PAULA THAT IS INLAND OVER CUBA WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER THE S FLORIDA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS E U.S. INTO THE GULF N OF 25N SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM TITUSVILLE FORT MYERS INTO THE GULF WATERS ALONG 24N87W TO THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA DOMINATES THE S GULF DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 23N W OF 92W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WITH DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE GULF W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEAVING ALL BUT THE SW GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO OVER THE W GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 17N81W ALONG 13N82W TO 11N81W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 19N W OF 80W AND OVER HAITI INTO THE GULF OF GONAVE INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ALONG 10N80W ACROSS COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER INTO THE E PACIFIC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 74W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E U.S. AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 78W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N77W DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TITUSVILLE. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N71W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 55W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM PAULA THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE FAR W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N W OF 76W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 29N59W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N43W TO 23N54W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N34W ALONG 28N39W 26N52W TO 22N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 45W AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. THE WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N55W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW