000 AXNT20 KNHC 142348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM PAULA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 82.0W...OR ABOUT 22 NM E OF HAVANA CUBA...MOVING E NEAR 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND SHEAR CONTINUE TO IMPACT PAULA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE N AND E OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 79W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 78W-83W. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS PAULA MOVES EWD ACROSS CUBA. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 5N26W 7N38W 6N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-43W NEAR AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 37W FROM 8N-14N ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO 25N93W SUPPORTED BY A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND INTO THE NRN GULF. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA. WHILE THERE IS NOT A STRONG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE FRONT...A LARGER CHANGE IN DEWPOINT IS SEEN ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH DRY STABLE AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING SKIES CLEAR. S OF THE FRONT...T.S. PAULA IS DRAWING MOISTURE NWD AND PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND SE FLORIDA. LIGHT NLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE NW GULF INCREASING IN SPEED CLOSER TO PAULA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GETS STRONGER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON PAULA. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF PAULA AND MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING FAIR WEATHER IN ITS WAKE. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. PAULA CONTINUES TO IMPACT WRN CUBA WHERE HAVANA IS STILL REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 50-65 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS MAINLY N AND E OF THE CENTER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 78W-86W ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A PORTION OF THE ITCZ THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS NRN COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 11N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH TRADEWINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. ALOFT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA DRAWING DRY AIR ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 31N79W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AT 29N81W. THE SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 350 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF SE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 29N73W TO 25N76W DEPICTING AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE FRONT AND ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH TO THE E NEAR 29N59W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANT-CYCLONE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA. FARTHER E...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 35N45W TO 24N55W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N36W 27N47W 23N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH BISECTS A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH NEAR 29N59W...AND A SECOND 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N35W. ALOFT...MOSTLY ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA E OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON