000 AXNT20 KNHC 141801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... PAULA WAS DEGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 1500 UTC. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 83.5W AT 14/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF PUERTO ESPERANZA AND 70 MI...115 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA MOVING E AT 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PAULA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH THE CENTER BECOMING PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...AND THE SE GULF INTO THE THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD MAKE PAULA TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOOSE ORGANIZATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA NEAR 9N14W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 7N21W 5N29W 6N38W 4N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 160 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM PAULA EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 85W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA W OF 82W. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PAULA SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. IN THE MEANTIME...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN AND FAR NW GULF SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING... SUPPORTING A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG 30N85W 28N88W 27N94W. THIS FRONT IS NOT PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION...INSTEAD...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KT AND A SHARP DROP IN DEW POINTS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO OVER THE W GULF KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. CARIBBEAN SEA... ALTHOUGH PAULA HAS BEEN DEGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...IT REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA THIS MORNING...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE INFO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR SW BASIN FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N77W. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED IN THE W ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN...PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT TO MOST OF THE REGION...JUST ALLOWING FOR A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS EMBEDDED ON THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA COVERS THE AREA W OF 55W. THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC TO OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS...PROVIDING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N76W TO 24N76W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REFLECT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N38W 27N48W 23N57W. MODERATE VALUES OF DEEP MOISTURE ALIGN PRETTY WELL ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 29N61W AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 25N38W...BOTH PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THE OVERALL AREA OF DISCUSSION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA