000 AXNT20 KNHC 141150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE PAULA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 84.5W AT 14/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 45 MILES WEST OF PUERTO ESPERANZA AND 135 MILES WEST OF HAVANA CUBA MOVING NE AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PAULA IS ENCOUNTERING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH THE CENTER BECOMING PARTIALLY EXPOSED. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 25N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 83W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 81W-86W. SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD MAKE PAULA TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOOSE ORGANIZATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N17W 6N27W 8N38W 6N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 20W/21W BETWEEN 10N-17N WITH A WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 9W-38W INCLUDING THE COAST OF OF W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE PAULA THAT IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING OVER THE SE GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NW GULF EARLIER THIS MORNING N OF 26N W OF 85W SUPPORTING A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE U.S. TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF WATERS FROM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG 26N87W TO 22N94W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM W OF THIS TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA AND A DRY STABLE AIRMASS. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER N TEXAS TO OVER THE W GULF KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE PAULA REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN AND INTERESTS IN W CUBA THIS MORNING...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N82W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING ENE TO 30N51W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N W OF 74W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 29N66W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N38W ALONG 23N48W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS TO JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N60W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N39W ALONG 28N48W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 25N56W CONTINUING TO 22N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF THE LOW. THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N54W AIDING IN THE SUPPORT OF THE SHEAR AXIS DISCUSSED ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW