000 AXNT20 KNHC 140551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE PAULA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.2N 85.2W AT 14/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 26 NM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MOVING NE AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PAULA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 84W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 82W-84W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS NO LONGER IN THE ATLC BASIN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N21W 5N26W 6N36W 4N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 16N18W TO 8N20W WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION JUST W OF THE TROUGH NEAR 16N20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 9N BETWEEN 20W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE PAULA REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE SE GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ANOTHER DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NW GULF CURRENTLY INLAND OVER TEXAS AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT SUPPORTING A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER N MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG 25N90W TO 22N95W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. THE GULF WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA AND A MODERATE DRY STABLE AIRMASS. SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER N TEXAS PUSHING S OVER THE FAR W GULF KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE PAULA... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 76W AND THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N80W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N79W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W IS UNDER MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING ENE TO 30N51W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N81W TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N76W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM S OF 28N W OF 75W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 32N50W TO A SECOND 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N67W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N43W ALONG 22N51W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N41W ALONG 29N48W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 25N55W CONTINUING TO 21N59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF THE LOW. THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N55W AIDING IN THE SUPPORT OF THE SHEAR AXIS DISCUSSED ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW