000 AXNT20 KNHC 140002 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2010 CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION... AND PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA AT 14/0000 UTC IS NEAR 21.8N 85.6W OR ABOUT 40 MILES/65 KM/ WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. PAULA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 21N AND EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N W OF 88W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ENE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA W OF 81W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAS NOW MOVED INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS INSTABILITY AND CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE FAR SW BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW IN PLACE FROM 17N81W TO 9N82W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 13N. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N21W 5N29W 6N38W 4N50W. A SFC TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 17N18W TO 8N19W WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 15N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 20W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO HURRICANE PAULA...CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N W OF 88W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ENE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA W OF 81W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING PAULA SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE OF A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 28N83W 25N89W 24N93W 25N97W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE LINE. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE GULF UNDER GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE PAULA...CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 20N AND THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA W OF 82W. THE BROAD SCALE SFC CYCLONIC FLOW OF PAULA COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN N OF 15N W OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THIS REGION. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PRODUCES FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE COVERS THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 60W...DRAWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER S FLORIDA TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS...WITHIN 60 NM OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N75W TO 24N81W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N41W 28N50W 25N57W 20N63W. MODERATE VALUES OF DEEP MOISTURE ALIGN PRETTY WELL ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL JETSTREAK WITH AXIS ALONG 33N W OF 55W GIVES SUPPORT TO THIS SYSTEM PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO IT. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...BETWEEN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN ATLC... BOTH PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THE OVERALL AREA OF DISCUSSION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA