000 AXNT20 KNHC 130002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA AT 12/2100 UTC IS NEAR 19.2N 86.0W OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. PAULA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PAULA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BASIN AND ALSO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. MULTI-LAYER CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO ASSOCIATED TO PAULA EXTEND OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC W OF 75W S OF 27N...AFFECTING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS N OF 23N. DESPITE IT IS EXPECTED THAT PAULA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH...SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS FOCUS THE STRONGEST CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREFORE...INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS AND TRACK OF PAULA DURING THE TIME PERIOD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 79W S OF 16N MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF HIGH VALUES OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN EARLIER POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED A FAIRLY CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 16N. ...THE ITCZ... A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH NEARLY PARALLELS THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS ALONG 16W FROM 7N TO 16N. THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED JUST WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 9N18W WESTWARD ALONG 6N26W 8N35W 6N45W 7N55W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS E OF 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO HURRICANE PAULA EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WESTERN CUBA...AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS S OF 25N W OF 88W. DESPITE IT IS EXPECTED THAT PAULA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH...SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS FOCUS THE STRONGEST CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREFORE...INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS AND TRACK OF PAULA DURING THE TIME PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT SWINGS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS COAST. THIS FRONT IS ONLY PRODUCING A FEW MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IMPACTING MOSTLY THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE GULF UNDER GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE PAULA IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 18N...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CUBA W OF 82W. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS FOCUS THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO PAULA OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREFORE...INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS AND TRACK OF PAULA DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THE SECOND FEATURE OF CONCERN IS THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 79W S OF 16N...PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 16N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MULTI-LAYER CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO HURRICANE PAULA EXTENDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC W OF 75W S OF 27N...AFFECTING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS N OF 23N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N46W 26N54W 20N61W. THIS TROUGH IS WELL DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIP WATER IMAGERY...BUOY OBSERVATIONS...AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL JETSTREAK WITH AXIS ALONG 32N W OF 60W GIVES SUPPORT TO THIS SYSTEM PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENVIRONMENT TO IT. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING/DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 20N74W PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THE WESTERN ATLC...AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 37N34W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA