000 AXNT20 KNHC 121155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 12/0900 UTC. HURRICANE PAULA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 84.9W AT 12/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 265 MILES/425 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TO 20N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N82W 20N81W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 80W ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N78W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO 7N76W MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-81W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N18W 6N24W 7N33W 6N42W 8N51W 6N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF DAKAR IN W SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 4N14W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 14N-15N. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 37W-46W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 13W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BUT IS BEGINNING TO GIVE WAY TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. OUTFLOW FROM HURCN PAULA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF S OF TAMPA FLORIDA E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER S FLORIDA S OF NAPLES E OF 84W. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SE KANSAS AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER MISSOURI WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NW GULF AT 0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM THE SE LOUISIANA COAST E OF NEW ORLEANS W ALONG 29N93W INTO TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF TROUGH TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST JUST N OF TAMPA AND RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS KEEPING THIS PORTION OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HURCN PAULA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH HURCN PAULA AND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 71W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...THUS CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OUTFLOW FROM HURCN PAULA HAS MOVED OVER THE BAHAMAS W OF 75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 25N W OF 78W. THIS IS AMPLIFYING THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S TO 20N W OF 60W WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND THUS CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 26N ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 31N67W. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDS AN AXIS E ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG 21N58W THEN NE TO 30N40W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 29N45W TO 22N58W AND FROM 29N55W TO 24N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROUGH. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N53W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE ITCZ. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM 29N17W ALONG 28N24W TO 29N30W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT N WITH A 1022 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW