000 AXNT20 KNHC 120557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM PAULA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 84.9W AT 12/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 230 NM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 17N BETWEEN 83W-85W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 15N80W 20N82W TO INLAND OVER CUBA NEAR 22N81W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N77W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO 7N75W MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N16W 5N21W 9N40W 6N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 14N16W TO 4N14W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 37W-48W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE GULF TONIGHT WITH SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. OUTFLOW FROM T.S. PAULA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS BEGINNING TO COVER THE SE GULF WITH HIGH CLOUDS S OF 26N E OF 87W AND LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W AND RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS KEEPING THIS PORTION OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS T.S. PAULA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER HAITI PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY N OF THE T.S. PAULA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC DIPPING S TO 20N W OF 60W WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 29N74W. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS ARE ENCROACHING THE SW PORTION MOSTLY W OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS COMPLIMENTS OF T.S. PAULA. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER HAITI EXTENDS AN AXIS E TO 20N60W THEN ENE TO 29N41W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE BENEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 30N45W TO 24N53W AND 27N55W TO 20N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 28N47W TO 21N60W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 21N65W TO BEYOND 32N48W. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N52W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE ITCZ. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N35W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW